Ladies and gentleman, welcome to the Twilight Zone. As long as almost anyone can recall, the Adapted Screenplay category has been more far more competitive than the original script slot. In general, more Academy friendly films tend to have been adapted from novels, non-fiction books, plays, articles, or from other material, with the competition for original fare proving thinner. As a result, the Original Screenplay category has quietly been one of our favorites, allowing foreign-language films, tiny indies or genre fare to pick up nominations where they'd otherwise have difficulty.
But here in 2013, we're suddenly through the looking glass, because for once, the screenplay Oscar races are weighted the other way. It's not that the Adapted category is thin—there'll be a fairly tough fight to the five nominations—it's that there are more viable Original screenplays than in any year we can remember since the 1970s. So for all the naysaying about Hollywood, we have a little proof that the days of the original picture aren't yet done.
So how does each category shape up? Adapted Screenplay does have the more obvious front-runner: John Ridley—who penned "Undercover Brother," lest we forget—was behind the screenplay of "12 Years A Slave," and seems like a good bet here, and it's an impressive adaptation job by anyone's standard. It's the only solid lock here in the category at this point, and the likely winner.
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